Eclipse 2026 Model Shear
A model that detects eclipses by "TEC went down" is wrong, and the archive proves it. Geomagnetic storms move the ionosphere harder than any eclipse — enhancements of +250% (Halloween 2003) and deep negative phases (Gannon 2024) — with no shadow anywhere. This page documents the shear corpus: the storm days ingested raw, paired against eclipse geometry, and presented to the frozen law. A naive detector false-positives here. The invariant must dead-cat — and whatever it actually does is recorded raw below, generated from the live crucible.
- Minimum Dst −412 nT — the most intense G5 since March 1989. Kp 9 reached twice (00 and 09 UT May 11), Kp ≥ 8 for a full day, daily Ap 273. Magnetosphere compressed to ~5 R_E; aurora at Florida latitudes.
- Why it shears: May 10–11 sit one month after the 2024 benchmark eclipse, same stations, same season, same solar-cycle phase. Day-side TEC first surged (positive storm phase), then the May 11 negative phase carved depletions that look eclipse-deep against quiet baselines — at stations where the Sun was completely unobscured.
- These two days form the shear-negative fossils: 2024 eclipse geometry ⊗ storm-day measurement, judged by the same law.
- Dst −383 nT (Oct 30; −422 nT in the November sequel); dayside TEC +40% (Oct 29) and +250% (Oct 30) within 2–5 hours via prompt-penetration electric fields — the daytime super-fountain; ~900% electron-content increase above CHAMP altitude. The Oct 28 X17 flare alone stepped TEC ~30% in ~15 minutes.
- Ingested as archive reference only — no fossil pairing, because the honest baseline rule forbids it: the 2024 quiet baselines are six months and a solar-regime away from October 2003, so a fossil verdict would be measuring seasonal drift, not the law. The raw series live in the ledger for the record; the wiki says so instead of hiding it.
Three pre-registered disciplines separate shadow physics from storm physics:
- The obscuration gate — a leaf can only audit at a UT second where the geometry says ≥80% of the solar disk is covered. Storm depletions at unobscured stations occur at seconds where the gate is closed; those patches are proven voids before any TEC value is read.
- The gate is a window, not a threshold — the unimodal shadow cone gives each station-day ONE contiguous audit window minutes long. A storm depletion must not merely be deep; it must be deep inside those exact minutes of the paired geometry to threaten a false positive.
- The quiet-baseline rule — baselines are lower medians over named days with max Kp ≤ 4 (checked live against GFZ at corpus build). Storm days can never contaminate a baseline, so the "normal" the law compares against is storm-free by construction.
The residual exposure is honest and documented: a storm's negative phase coinciding in local time-of-day with the paired geometry's gate window can, in principle, satisfy the coupling arithmetic. That is exactly what the shear fossils measure. If one fires, it is a FALSE POSITIVE, the historical Form seals CURE, and the finding stands raw — the wiki table below is generated from the same crucible that seals.
The shear-negative rows in the full historical table:
Full historical crucible — every pair, one law (click to expand — generated live from the ledger)
| Eclipse | Kind | Pair | Verdict | Projected (UT) | Depletion | Obscuration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-08-21 | positive | 2017-08-21-carbondale-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 18:05:47 UT | 391086 ppm (39.1%) | 800292 ppm |
| 2017-08-21 | positive | 2017-08-21-casper-wy-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 17:29:17 UT | 268279 ppm (26.8%) | 802380 ppm |
| 2017-08-21 | positive | 2017-08-21-columbia-sc-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 18:27:38 UT | 448461 ppm (44.8%) | 800290 ppm |
| 2017-08-21 | positive | 2017-08-21-nashville-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 18:12:52 UT | 392061 ppm (39.2%) | 802211 ppm |
| 2017-08-21 | positive | 2017-08-21-salem-or-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 17:05:17 UT | 263023 ppm (26.3%) | 802393 ppm |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-carbondale-ctrl2017-07-25 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-carbondale-ctrl2017-08-14 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-carbondale-ctrl2017-08-28 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-casper-wy-ctrl2017-07-25 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-casper-wy-ctrl2017-08-14 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-casper-wy-ctrl2017-08-28 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-columbia-sc-ctrl2017-07-25 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-columbia-sc-ctrl2017-08-14 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-columbia-sc-ctrl2017-08-28 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-nashville-ctrl2017-07-25 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-nashville-ctrl2017-08-14 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-nashville-ctrl2017-08-28 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-salem-or-ctrl2017-07-25 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-salem-or-ctrl2017-08-14 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-21 | control-negative | neg-2017-08-21-salem-or-ctrl2017-08-28 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | positive | 2023-10-14-albuquerque-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 16:26:33 UT | 265351 ppm (26.5%) | 801694 ppm |
| 2023-10-14 | positive | 2023-10-14-corpus-christi-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 16:46:38 UT | 315295 ppm (31.5%) | 800667 ppm |
| 2023-10-14 | positive | 2023-10-14-eugene-or-eclipse | no projection ‼︎ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | positive | 2023-10-14-san-antonio-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 16:42:59 UT | 319424 ppm (31.9%) | 801810 ppm |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-albuquerque-ctrl2023-09-17 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-albuquerque-ctrl2023-09-30 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-albuquerque-ctrl2023-10-02 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-albuquerque-ctrl2023-10-07 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-corpus-christi-ctrl2023-09-17 | FALSE POSITIVE ‼︎ | 16:46:38 UT | 275023 ppm (27.5%) | 800667 ppm |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-corpus-christi-ctrl2023-09-30 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-corpus-christi-ctrl2023-10-02 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-corpus-christi-ctrl2023-10-07 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-eugene-or-ctrl2023-09-17 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-eugene-or-ctrl2023-09-30 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-eugene-or-ctrl2023-10-02 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-eugene-or-ctrl2023-10-07 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-san-antonio-ctrl2023-09-17 | FALSE POSITIVE ‼︎ | 16:42:59 UT | 280483 ppm (28.0%) | 801810 ppm |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-san-antonio-ctrl2023-09-30 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-san-antonio-ctrl2023-10-02 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-14 | control-negative | neg-2023-10-14-san-antonio-ctrl2023-10-07 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | positive | 2024-04-08-carbondale-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 18:46:29 UT | 274457 ppm (27.4%) | 800534 ppm |
| 2024-04-08 | positive | 2024-04-08-cleveland-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 19:01:31 UT | 353317 ppm (35.3%) | 802627 ppm |
| 2024-04-08 | positive | 2024-04-08-dallas-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 18:45:00 UT | 308350 ppm (30.8%) | 997624 ppm |
| 2024-04-08 | positive | 2024-04-08-indianapolis-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 18:53:22 UT | 286986 ppm (28.7%) | 800050 ppm |
| 2024-04-08 | positive | 2024-04-08-mazatlan-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 18:05:00 UT | 323319 ppm (32.3%) | 970682 ppm |
| 2024-04-08 | positive | 2024-04-08-millstone-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 19:17:05 UT | 419091 ppm (41.9%) | 801464 ppm |
| 2024-04-08 | positive | 2024-04-08-norwich-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 19:17:06 UT | 426439 ppm (42.6%) | 801484 ppm |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-carbondale-ctrl2024-03-12 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-carbondale-ctrl2024-04-01 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-carbondale-ctrl2024-04-15 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-cleveland-ctrl2024-03-12 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-cleveland-ctrl2024-04-01 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-cleveland-ctrl2024-04-15 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-dallas-ctrl2024-03-12 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-dallas-ctrl2024-04-01 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-dallas-ctrl2024-04-15 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-indianapolis-ctrl2024-03-12 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-indianapolis-ctrl2024-04-01 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-indianapolis-ctrl2024-04-15 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-mazatlan-ctrl2024-03-12 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-mazatlan-ctrl2024-04-01 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-mazatlan-ctrl2024-04-15 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-millstone-ctrl2024-03-12 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-millstone-ctrl2024-04-01 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-millstone-ctrl2024-04-15 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-norwich-ctrl2024-03-12 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-norwich-ctrl2024-04-01 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | control-negative | neg-2024-04-08-norwich-ctrl2024-04-15 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-carbondale-storm2024-05-10 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-carbondale-storm2024-05-11 | FALSE POSITIVE ‼︎ | 18:46:29 UT | 740074 ppm (74.0%) | 800534 ppm |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-cleveland-storm2024-05-10 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-cleveland-storm2024-05-11 | FALSE POSITIVE ‼︎ | 19:01:31 UT | 720053 ppm (72.0%) | 802627 ppm |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-dallas-storm2024-05-10 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-dallas-storm2024-05-11 | FALSE POSITIVE ‼︎ | 18:27:27 UT | 706563 ppm (70.7%) | 801513 ppm |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-indianapolis-storm2024-05-10 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-indianapolis-storm2024-05-11 | FALSE POSITIVE ‼︎ | 18:53:22 UT | 736981 ppm (73.7%) | 800050 ppm |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-mazatlan-storm2024-05-10 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-mazatlan-storm2024-05-11 | FALSE POSITIVE ‼︎ | 17:54:27 UT | 598914 ppm (59.9%) | 802552 ppm |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-millstone-storm2024-05-10 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-millstone-storm2024-05-11 | FALSE POSITIVE ‼︎ | 19:17:05 UT | 671980 ppm (67.2%) | 801464 ppm |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-norwich-storm2024-05-10 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-negative | shear-2024-04-08-norwich-storm2024-05-11 | FALSE POSITIVE ‼︎ | 19:17:06 UT | 694994 ppm (69.5%) | 801484 ppm |
| 2026-08-12 | positive | 2026-08-12-coruna-eclipse | no projection ‼︎ | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | positive | 2026-08-12-latrabjarg-eclipse | PROJECTED ✓ | 17:40:00 UT | 293964 ppm (29.4%) | 915557 ppm |
| 2026-08-12 | positive | 2026-08-12-leon-eclipse | no projection ‼︎ | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | positive | 2026-08-12-reykjavik-eclipse | no projection ‼︎ | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | control-negative | neg-2026-08-12-coruna-ctrl2026-07-16 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | control-negative | neg-2026-08-12-coruna-ctrl2026-08-05 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | control-negative | neg-2026-08-12-latrabjarg-ctrl2026-07-16 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | control-negative | neg-2026-08-12-latrabjarg-ctrl2026-08-05 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | control-negative | neg-2026-08-12-leon-ctrl2026-07-16 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | control-negative | neg-2026-08-12-leon-ctrl2026-08-05 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | control-negative | neg-2026-08-12-reykjavik-ctrl2026-07-16 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | control-negative | neg-2026-08-12-reykjavik-ctrl2026-08-05 | dead cat ✓ | — | — | — |
ONE frozen law — gate 800000 ppm, coupling 3/10 — applied to every pair. Generated live from eclipse-fossils.jsonl through EclipseProjectionRunner.
The May-11 false positives above taught the second-generation layer: a shadow's depletion is confined to its own gate minutes and near-zero in the flanking hours; a storm floods the flanks as deep as the window. The discriminant — excess in-window depletion (gate-window median − ±2 h flank median, exact integers) — judged against every eclipse positive, every Gannon shear pair, and every quiet control:
The full confinement + lag table (click to expand — generated live from the ledger)
| Eclipse | Kind | Station | Day | Window depletion | Flank depletion | EXCESS | Deepest bin (UT) | Δ from own max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-08-21 | control | carbondale | 2017-07-25 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:07:30 | -835 s ✗ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | carbondale | 2017-08-14 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:07:30 | -835 s ✗ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | carbondale | 2017-08-28 | 42553 ppm | 77669 ppm | -35116 ppm | 18:12:30 | -535 s ✗ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | casper-wy | 2017-07-25 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 17:27:30 | -981 s ✗ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | casper-wy | 2017-08-14 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 17:27:30 | -981 s ✗ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | casper-wy | 2017-08-28 | 64516 ppm | 75949 ppm | -11433 ppm | 17:52:30 | 519 s ✓ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | columbia-sc | 2017-07-25 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:27:30 | -936 s ✗ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | columbia-sc | 2017-08-14 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:27:30 | -936 s ✗ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | columbia-sc | 2017-08-28 | 100917 ppm | 99099 ppm | 1818 ppm | 18:47:30 | 264 s ✓ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | nashville | 2017-07-25 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:12:30 | -954 s ✗ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | nashville | 2017-08-14 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:12:30 | -954 s ✗ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | nashville | 2017-08-28 | 31578 ppm | 67415 ppm | -35837 ppm | 18:27:30 | -54 s ✓ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | salem-or | 2017-07-25 | 34090 ppm | 0 ppm | 34090 ppm | 17:32:30 | 852 s ✓ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | salem-or | 2017-08-14 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 17:07:30 | -648 s ✗ |
| 2017-08-21 | control | salem-or | 2017-08-28 | 0 ppm | 31250 ppm | -31250 ppm | 17:07:30 | -648 s ✗ |
| 2017-08-21 | eclipse | carbondale | 2017-08-21 | 477395 ppm | 162019 ppm | 315376 ppm | 18:27:30 | 365 s ✓ |
| 2017-08-21 | eclipse | casper-wy | 2017-08-21 | 388617 ppm | 86941 ppm | 301676 ppm | 17:57:30 | 819 s ✓ |
| 2017-08-21 | eclipse | columbia-sc | 2017-08-21 | 498899 ppm | 237474 ppm | 261425 ppm | 18:47:30 | 264 s ✓ |
| 2017-08-21 | eclipse | nashville | 2017-08-21 | 437216 ppm | 208971 ppm | 228245 ppm | 18:27:30 | -54 s ✓ |
| 2017-08-21 | eclipse | salem-or | 2017-08-21 | 384069 ppm | 191000 ppm | 193069 ppm | 17:27:30 | 552 s ✓ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | albuquerque | 2023-09-17 | 200344 ppm | 183114 ppm | 17230 ppm | 16:37:30 | 35 s ✓ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | albuquerque | 2023-09-30 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 16:27:30 | -565 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | albuquerque | 2023-10-02 | 32451 ppm | 17336 ppm | 15115 ppm | 16:27:30 | -565 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | albuquerque | 2023-10-07 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 16:27:30 | -565 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | corpus-christi | 2023-09-17 | 258198 ppm | 223178 ppm | 35020 ppm | 16:47:30 | -646 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | corpus-christi | 2023-09-30 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 16:47:30 | -646 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | corpus-christi | 2023-10-02 | 54107 ppm | 0 ppm | 54107 ppm | 16:47:30 | -646 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | corpus-christi | 2023-10-07 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 16:47:30 | -646 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | eugene-or | 2023-09-17 | 71380 ppm | 80460 ppm | -9080 ppm | 16:17:30 | -83 s ✓ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | eugene-or | 2023-09-30 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 16:12:30 | -383 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | eugene-or | 2023-10-02 | 33316 ppm | 31168 ppm | 2148 ppm | 16:12:30 | -383 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | eugene-or | 2023-10-07 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 16:12:30 | -383 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | san-antonio | 2023-09-17 | 265203 ppm | 200956 ppm | 64247 ppm | 16:42:30 | -706 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | san-antonio | 2023-09-30 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 16:42:30 | -706 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | san-antonio | 2023-10-02 | 20180 ppm | 4829 ppm | 15351 ppm | 16:47:30 | -406 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | control | san-antonio | 2023-10-07 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 16:42:30 | -706 s ✗ |
| 2023-10-14 | eclipse | albuquerque | 2023-10-14 | 322446 ppm | 152017 ppm | 170429 ppm | 16:47:30 | 635 s ✓ |
| 2023-10-14 | eclipse | corpus-christi | 2023-10-14 | 348812 ppm | 223811 ppm | 125001 ppm | 17:12:30 | 854 s ✓ |
| 2023-10-14 | eclipse | eugene-or | 2023-10-14 | 131566 ppm | 0 ppm | 131566 ppm | 16:27:30 | 517 s ✓ |
| 2023-10-14 | eclipse | san-antonio | 2023-10-14 | 368565 ppm | 234830 ppm | 133735 ppm | 16:57:30 | 194 s ✓ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | carbondale | 2024-03-12 | 28804 ppm | 32136 ppm | -3332 ppm | 18:47:30 | -829 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | carbondale | 2024-04-01 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:47:30 | -829 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | carbondale | 2024-04-15 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:47:30 | -829 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | cleveland | 2024-03-12 | 31284 ppm | 30168 ppm | 1116 ppm | 19:02:30 | -788 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | cleveland | 2024-04-01 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 19:02:30 | -788 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | cleveland | 2024-04-15 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 19:02:30 | -788 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | dallas | 2024-03-12 | 73593 ppm | 55656 ppm | 17937 ppm | 18:47:30 | 294 s ✓ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | dallas | 2024-04-01 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:27:30 | -906 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | dallas | 2024-04-15 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:27:30 | -906 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | indianapolis | 2024-03-12 | 54195 ppm | 47430 ppm | 6765 ppm | 19:22:30 | 873 s ✓ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | indianapolis | 2024-04-01 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:52:30 | -927 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | indianapolis | 2024-04-15 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:52:30 | -927 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | mazatlan | 2024-03-12 | 100549 ppm | 65170 ppm | 35379 ppm | 18:02:30 | -427 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | mazatlan | 2024-04-01 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 17:52:30 | -1027 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | mazatlan | 2024-04-15 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 17:52:30 | -1027 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | millstone | 2024-03-12 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 19:17:30 | -709 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | millstone | 2024-04-01 | 11608 ppm | 16518 ppm | -4910 ppm | 19:32:30 | 191 s ✓ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | millstone | 2024-04-15 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 19:17:30 | -709 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | norwich | 2024-03-12 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 19:17:30 | -648 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | norwich | 2024-04-01 | 19407 ppm | 0 ppm | 19407 ppm | 19:32:30 | 252 s ✓ |
| 2024-04-08 | control | norwich | 2024-04-15 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 19:17:30 | -648 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | eclipse | carbondale | 2024-04-08 | 313114 ppm | 255571 ppm | 57543 ppm | 19:17:30 | 971 s ✓ |
| 2024-04-08 | eclipse | cleveland | 2024-04-08 | 400669 ppm | 330523 ppm | 70146 ppm | 19:27:30 | 712 s ✓ |
| 2024-04-08 | eclipse | dallas | 2024-04-08 | 280267 ppm | 194617 ppm | 85650 ppm | 18:57:30 | 894 s ✓ |
| 2024-04-08 | eclipse | indianapolis | 2024-04-08 | 354940 ppm | 276144 ppm | 78796 ppm | 19:22:30 | 873 s ✓ |
| 2024-04-08 | eclipse | mazatlan | 2024-04-08 | 272936 ppm | 174356 ppm | 98580 ppm | 18:27:30 | 1073 s ✓ |
| 2024-04-08 | eclipse | millstone | 2024-04-08 | 474572 ppm | 380621 ppm | 93951 ppm | 19:42:30 | 791 s ✓ |
| 2024-04-08 | eclipse | norwich | 2024-04-08 | 477974 ppm | 380160 ppm | 97814 ppm | 19:37:30 | 552 s ✓ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | carbondale | 2024-05-10 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:47:30 | -829 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | carbondale | 2024-05-11 | 731039 ppm | 723259 ppm | 7780 ppm | 18:47:30 | -829 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | cleveland | 2024-05-10 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 19:02:30 | -788 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | cleveland | 2024-05-11 | 709141 ppm | 705195 ppm | 3946 ppm | 19:02:30 | -788 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | dallas | 2024-05-10 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:27:30 | -906 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | dallas | 2024-05-11 | 728586 ppm | 685750 ppm | 42836 ppm | 18:42:30 | -6 s ✓ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | indianapolis | 2024-05-10 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:52:30 | -927 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | indianapolis | 2024-05-11 | 733664 ppm | 724580 ppm | 9084 ppm | 18:52:30 | -927 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | mazatlan | 2024-05-10 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 17:52:30 | -1027 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | mazatlan | 2024-05-11 | 471758 ppm | 539170 ppm | -67412 ppm | 17:52:30 | -1027 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | millstone | 2024-05-10 | 0 ppm | 49585 ppm | -49585 ppm | 19:17:30 | -709 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | millstone | 2024-05-11 | 667827 ppm | 665528 ppm | 2299 ppm | 19:17:30 | -709 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | norwich | 2024-05-10 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 19:17:30 | -648 s ✗ |
| 2024-04-08 | shear-storm | norwich | 2024-05-11 | 687000 ppm | 684796 ppm | 2204 ppm | 19:17:30 | -648 s ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | control | coruna | 2026-07-16 | 91635 ppm | 57229 ppm | 34406 ppm | 18:17:30 | -648 s ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | control | coruna | 2026-08-05 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:17:30 | -648 s ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | control | latrabjarg | 2026-07-16 | 31700 ppm | 95949 ppm | -64249 ppm | 17:32:30 | -784 s ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | control | latrabjarg | 2026-08-05 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 17:47:30 | 116 s ✓ |
| 2026-08-12 | control | leon | 2026-07-16 | 71830 ppm | 43561 ppm | 28269 ppm | 18:27:30 | -101 s ✓ |
| 2026-08-12 | control | leon | 2026-08-05 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 18:17:30 | -701 s ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | control | reykjavik | 2026-07-16 | 62519 ppm | 106097 ppm | -43578 ppm | 17:37:30 | -676 s ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | control | reykjavik | 2026-08-05 | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 0 ppm | 17:37:30 | -676 s ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | eclipse | coruna | 2026-08-12 | 113004 ppm | 0 ppm | 113004 ppm | 18:32:30 | 252 s ✓ |
| 2026-08-12 | eclipse | latrabjarg | 2026-08-12 | 293964 ppm | 100157 ppm | 193807 ppm | 17:52:30 | 416 s ✓ |
| 2026-08-12 | eclipse | leon | 2026-08-12 | 15304 ppm | 0 ppm | 15304 ppm | 18:37:30 | 499 s ✓ |
| 2026-08-12 | eclipse | reykjavik | 2026-08-12 | 197572 ppm | 85768 ppm | 111804 ppm | 17:42:30 | -376 s ✗ |
Measured two-clause separation (lag gate [-300, +1200] s): min eclipse excess 15304 ppm · eclipse lag failures 1 · max lag-passing non-eclipse excess 42836 ppm (shear-storm dallas 2024-05-11) — no clean separation (recorded raw)
Excess = median depletion inside the gate window − median over the ±2 h flanks (exact integers, ledger-direct). A shadow is confined and rides its own maximum; a storm floods the flanks and pins to window edges. Generated live from the V252 ledger.
This table is what "data sheared of the models" yields: the frozen law's own false positives, turned into the measurement that rejects them — and into the storm-proof clause of the sealed prediction extensions.
- On eclipse day,
eclipse-watchread NOAA SWPC's 1-minute estimated Kp every pass. Est Kp ≥ 5 would have opened the storm gate: the capture continues, the totality-path resolution still runs (a G-storm cannot un-total an eclipse — the geometry side is untouched), but the interpretation gains a storm annotation, the control-channel claims (Norwich/Millstone null) are weakened by storm variability, and the Gannon/Halloween archives become the parallel science channel. On 2026-08-12 the gate never opened — the day resolved geomagnetically quiet, so the sealed resolution grades clean, with no storm annotation. - Post-eclipse control days (2026-08-05, 2026-08-19, 2026-07-16) pass the same Kp ≤ 4 gate before entering the resolution baselines; a disturbed control is excluded and reported, exactly as on the historical corpus.
One Madrigal world-file scan per day, SHA-256 over the raw fetched bytes — the full ingest ledger lives on Data archives, the authoritative provenance page.