Shear Studies Index

Shear Studies — Program Index

Start here: Zero Float · Zero Shear · Readers’ guide · UUM-8D vs IUT — WIN · White paper · Study 11 Ehrhart LAW FROZEN; Study 07 + Study 06 LAW FROZEN; Study 10 Fermi/DM CHARTER SEALED; eclipse crossed 2026-08-12 — pinned-archive verdict ~2026-08-30.

The sky writes geometry, and geometry cannot lie. Every study on this wiki begins with a forcing that carries its own clock and its own track — a shadow cone sweeping a ground path, a rocket burn stamped to the manifest second, a flare peak on an X-ray clock, an earthquake origin time, a shock front crossing L1 — and asks whether a public raw archive answers at the place the track names and at the lag the travel time demands. The shear is the sealed, exact-integer test that the true forcing passes and its loudest look-alike fails: an adversary can mimic the magnitude of a response, but it cannot fake its shape.

Eight panels, one recipe: each study pairs a forcing that carries its own clock — ephemeris second, launch manifest, X-ray peak, origin second, L1 minute, catalog entry, Earth-rotation VLBI track, Gaia sampling clock — and its own track with a public raw archive and a sealed look-alike adversary.

Note

One method, many skies. Zero float · zero shear is the program doctrine. OPEN means we do not have the data — only 03, 05, 08, 26. 01 / 04 / 06 / 07 have sealed integers (apex game_id missing is a membrane gap). 10 is CHARTER WITH ARCHIVE, not OPEN. 02 / 09 / 11 / 12 / 13 are LIVE CLAIM. Studies 22–25 are live on Glama — user guide · example app · Math Court.

Program status

#	Study	Status	The forcing and the shear
1	Eclipse 2026 — Overview	DATA SEALED — first look 2026-08-12; frozen integers + 82-row corpus. Claim on apex is not served yet.	The Moon's umbral cone crossed Iberia on 2026-08-12 on a verified-quiet day; the raw first look shows the total-electron-content bite riding the shadow's ground track at all four custody stations, with geomagnetic storms as the sealed adversary. The sealed verdict grades on the pinned archive (~2026-08-30).
2	Study 02 — Launch ionospheric holes · Regulatory alarm	LIVE CLAIM · DATA Starlink 10-49 2026-08-25T09:33:38Z	Rocket second-stage burns punch F-region holes on a manifest-published clock. This morning’s Cape jellyfish is the weekly clock; 900 km stays cited / not measured until Madrigal TEC posts. Hole is terrestrial de-bias vs Study 07 — not a 2D DM verdict. Edge: not known. Alarm package ready; no agency receipt id.
3	Study 03 — Solar-flare SIDs · Predictions & validations	OPEN — no SID corpus; detection threshold not sealed	Layer A: sunlit TEC step on GOES clock vs storms/radio bursts. Layer B: SHARP signed crossing-count helicity (exact integer, not float ∫A·B) vs large-flux quiet ARs + SWAN-SF baseline — Moffatt linking on the Sun; torsion≠linking spelled out.
4	Study 04 — Tsunami vs storm surge · Results (partial)	PARTIAL_CORPUS_SEAL — 2/2 tsunami gauge WIN; Sandy adversary WIN; Tonga VOID_NEED_PRESSURE. Data is sealed. Claim on apex is not served yet.	Integer-mm first-onset vs chart minutes on CO-OPS pulls. Full multi-gauge Form + pressure branch still unsealed.
5	Study 05 — Forbush decreases	OPEN — no NMDB corpus ingested; thresholds not frozen	An L1 shock minute strobes the ~50-station neutron-monitor network; a rigidity-ordered, longitude-flat global step must part — at zero false positives on raw uncorrected counts, replayed from archived snapshots against held-out negative days — from the pressure lows and the traveling diurnal wave that mimic its size but not its shape.
6	Study 06 — Explosion vs earthquake · Corpus · Results · Registry	LAW FROZEN — IC.MDJ 6/6 explosion WIN; 3/3 adversary reject. Data is sealed. Claim on apex is not served yet.	Catalog clock + 53±2 s travel + SNR ≥ 20,000 ppt on raw integer counts; near-site/collapse miss the appointment. IU.INCN VOID this seal.
7	Study 07 — Sgr A* Milky Way raw visibilities · Corpus · Results · Registry	LAW FROZEN — primary csv/ 8/8 WIN; csv_norm/ adversary 8/8 MISS. Data is sealed. Claim on apex is not served yet.	Earth-rotation (u,v) tracks on Sgr A* grade public EHT Stokes-I CSV rows (closures + radial ladder + arc order). Frozen integers: short ≥ 1.5 Jy, long ≤ 0.4 Jy, ratio ≥ ×5, closure concentration ≥ 200 ppt beating scramble null. Next portal product is a registry slot, not an open study.
8	Study 08 — Gaia BH1 astrometric shear	OPEN — no µas ingest; thresholds not frozen	Raw Gaia / RV vectors for the luminous star (integer µas, m·s⁻¹) vs the published N M☉ dark-companion fit as adversary — pipeline 1 of the three cosmology black-hole paths; ingest = dedicated corpus only, never float-thrash into core OS or NATS.
9	Study 09 — Global Convective Bond (Affine.Earth OS press / Study-09-Global-Convective-Bond.md)	LIVE CLAIM	Traffic + atmosphere + solar; frozen Int64 thresholds; REFUSED ≠ clear sky.
10	Study 10 — Fermi gamma shear / dark matter	CHARTER WITH ARCHIVE — named HEASARC weekly photon FITS + paper; no keV ingest. Not OPEN. Edge word: not known.	~43.2 GeV stacked cluster line vs Inner Galaxy null. Continuous stack = adversary. This row does not say dark matter is disproved.
11	Study 11 — Ehrhart volume shear · Corpus · Results	LAW FROZEN + LIVE CLAIM — 5/5 WIN · 5/5 float adversary MISS	Integer lattice counts in dilated polytopes recover exact Ehrhart volume; float triangulation shear-fails at (t=12). Replaces Hohenberg–Kohn (\int\rho). Conjecture map · Fourier Phantom.
12	Study 12 — Quantum parallel repetition	LIVE CLAIM	vQbit + Jordan bonds vs float amplitude tensor — discrete repetition bounds. Replaces many-electron (\psi). Fourier Phantom.
13	Study 13 — Connes rigidity	LIVE CLAIM	Group rigidity via integer linking invariants vs float spectral adversary. Replaces KS potential. Fourier Phantom.
14	Study 14 — Protein lattice / PDB play · Known molecular discoveries	LAW FROZEN + LIVE CLAIM	4-char PDB id from hosted holdings N=258616. IDE #pdb-holdings. Occupancy stays DARK.
15	Study 15 — Skala DFT shear	CITED — GMTKN55 2.72 / 2.8 kcal/mol fetched 2026-08-24. Court DARK. Not OPEN.	Contrast methods. Affine refuses the float or seals the integer. Do not call Skala useless. Same continuum court as Anima FNO (Fourier Phantom). Family ledger: Known discoveries.
16	Study 16 — Disease type	LAW FROZEN + LIVE CLAIM	ICD/DOID industry key. Generated labels do not WIN.
17	Study 17 — Chemistry InChIKey	LAW FROZEN + LIVE CLAIM	InChIKey/CID. SMILES and float MW/logP are not the court.
18	Study 18 — Material STD	LAW FROZEN + LIVE CLAIM	COD / mp-id / space-group. No minted ids.
19	Study 19 — Go First Dice	LAW FROZEN + LIVE CLAIM	Cited Meyer 2023 5×d60. Exact 1/120.
20	Study 20 — Rife frequency	LAW FROZEN + LIVE CLAIM	Integer Hz/nm test claim. Not efficacy.
21	Study 21 — Stellar dynamo · kill shot	LAW FROZEN + LIVE CLAIM	Integer (q,r) + n/d vs continuous MHD / gyrochronology. van Saders 2016 is their WMB patch. No Kepler/TESS B. Not Study 09.
22	Study 22 — The ground state is a coordinate · Math Court	LIVE ON GLAMA — energy −1/1	VQE sells a statistical ground energy. Affine prints the exact rational. Public tool: execute_2local_hamiltonian. Example app.
23	Study 23 — A spin glass does not need a freezer	LIVE ON GLAMA — energy −1	D-Wave anneals with temperature. Affine grades a ±1 string and prints the integer. Public tool: route_spin_glass_manifold.
24	Study 24 — A molecule is consistent, or it is not	LIVE ON GLAMA — WIN	Float SDPs invent false-positive geometries. Affine cross-multiplies a rational 2-RDM. Public tool: verify_n_representability.
25	Study 25 — Supremacy is often a rounding error	LIVE ON GLAMA — permanent 6	Boson-sampling floats cancel the integer. Affine prints 6 for the 3×3 all-ones matrix. Public tool: execute_exact_permanent.
26	Study 26 — Master regulator bonds	OPEN — charter only; no regulon corpus ingested; gate not run	Load-bearing regulator sets as bonds — network shape vs mutation magnitude on public TCGA/LINCS keys; test claim, not efficacy.
27	Study 27 — Exact nuclear scattering	OPEN — charter only; no configuration corpus ingested; gate not run	Glauber all-orders vs optical-limit smear on public EXFOR/AME2020 keys — the field's own 30–50 mb divergence replayed in exact integers; test claim, not efficacy.

Generated-candidate hashes (not a new study number): protein-material-aggregates.json — Look only, N=125302. Play proteins on #pdb-holdings. OPEN stays 03 / 05 / 08 / 26.

What this program protects

These are not laboratory curiosities. A tide gauge that can tell a seismic wavefront from a storm surge inside the first hour is the difference between a timely tsunami warning and a coastline evacuated for nothing — or not evacuated at all. A flare shear that reads the sunlit hemisphere on the X-ray clock speaks to the same physics that blacks out polar aviation radio and raises crew radiation dose on high-latitude routes. A seismic ladder that separates an announced explosion from an earthquake in raw integer counts is the working problem of nuclear-treaty verification. A launch-hole shear that confines each ~900 km ionospheric hole to its ascent corridor gives the launch industry a public, checkable ledger of its atmospheric footprint. And a galactic-center visibility shear that grades the public Sgr A* CSV before any ring PNG keeps the Milky Way's most famous image honest to the bytes anyone can download. In every case the protection comes from the same place: a frozen, exact-integer law that anyone can re-run on the raw archive.

The shear recipe

Every charter on this wiki must instantiate all four pieces before its status line may advance. A study missing any one of them is not a shear study; it is a correlation hunt.

1. A forcing with a computable clock and track. The cause must announce itself in public numbers before the response is examined: an ephemeris, a launch manifest, an X-ray flux time series, a seismic catalog origin, an L1 plasma record. The clock gives the second (or minute) the response must lag from; the track gives the cone, corridor, hemisphere, chart, or point the response must confine to.
2. A public raw response archive. Exact URLs, file formats, cadence, and any authentication named in the charter. Raw means raw: uncorrected counts, unfiltered gauge levels, gridded values as served. Anyone with the charter and a terminal can pull the same bytes.
3. A sealed adversary. A named confounder that reaches the same magnitude as the true response but wears a different shape — a storm instead of a shadow, a surge instead of a wavefront, a pressure low instead of a shock. The shear must separate forcing from adversary on shape alone; separating on size is forbidden.
4. Standing future events for pre-registration. The forcing must recur on a schedule or a statistical drumbeat (launch manifests, flare watches, subsea seismicity, L1 monitors) so the frozen law can be tested on events that had not happened when the thresholds were sealed.

Verdict rules, common to all studies: verdicts are exact integers — no floating point crosses a seal. Every shear has a confinement analog (the response lives inside the track) and a traveling-lag analog (the response arrives on the clock, offset by a physical travel time). Thresholds are derived from a historical corpus, then frozen and sealed before any future event is scored. Falsifiers are recorded raw: a recorded failure is a finding, never renamed, never smoothed, never retro-fitted.

How a result gets sealed

Every study walks the same five-stage road, in order, with no stage revisited.

1. Charter. The forcing, track, clock, archives, adversaries, and success criteria are written down and sealed. OPEN is reserved for the next stage: we do not yet have ingested data / frozen integers. A named archive in the charter is not OPEN if the stronger term (CHARTER WITH ARCHIVE, DATA SEALED, LAW FROZEN) already applies.
2. Corpus. Historical events are pulled raw from the named archives — every event the archives hold, not a curated subset. The corpus page records exact pulls, byte counts, and gaps.
3. Frozen law. Thresholds and the shear discriminant are derived from the corpus, stated as exact integers, and sealed. From this moment the law does not move; only events move through it.
4. Pre-registration. Each qualifying future event is registered before it happens (or before its response data is examined), with the predicted confinement and lag written into the registry page in advance.
5. Public resolution. The event occurs, the archives fill, the frozen law scores the raw data, and the verdict — pass or fail, integer by integer — is published as-is. A failed shear stays on the page with its numbers intact.

Why shape and not size

Size is cheap in geophysics: storms, surges, pressure systems, and radio bursts routinely match or exceed the amplitude of the signals studied here. What none of them can do is keep an appointment — arrive inside a moving cone, lag a published second by a fixed travel time, step fifty stations in the same minute, or climb a deterministic arrival ladder. The appointment is geometry, and geometry cannot lie.