Study 06 Explosion vs Earthquake Results

Study 06 — Results: frozen law on Punggye-ri integer counts

For every reader

1. The instrument wrote integer seismometer counts (miniSEED STEIM), not a float spectrum.
2. At IC.MDJ, every announced DPRK test (2006–2017) shows a travel-time appointment near 53 s with huge SNR.
3. Near-site tectonic / collapse events either miss that appointment or sit far below the SNR floor.
4. Under a frozen integer law: 6/6 explosions WIN · 3/3 adversaries correctly rejected.

Charter: Study 06 · Corpus: Corpus · Ledger: corpus/study-06/study06_ledger.json

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Frozen law (sealed 2026-08-20T19:45:00Z)

Symbol	Meaning	Sealed integer
pn_pred_s	IC.MDJ predicted regional onset from catalog origin	53 s
T_lag_s	|travel − pn_pred| max	2 s
T_snr_ppt	peak 1-s energy ×1000 / pre-origin 20-s median	20,000 ppt
Onset	first 1-s bin after origin with energy ≥ 5× pre-median and ≥ median+500	—
FIRE	onset found AND lag ≤ T_lag AND snr ≥ T_snr	—

Station stratum this seal: IC.MDJ.00.BHZ only. IU.INCN = VOID-by-inventory (not pulled). No float crosses a seal.

WIN (explosion) iff detector FIRE. WIN (adversary) iff detector does not FIRE.

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Primary grades — announced explosions

6 / 6 WIN

Event	Origin (UTC)	mb×1000	travel_s	lag_s	snr_ppt	Verdict
usp000eurb (2006-10-09)	2006-10-09T01:35:28.020Z	4300	53	0	68,315	WIN
usp000gxgc (2009-05-25)	2009-05-25T00:54:43.120Z	4700	53	0	584,014	WIN
usc000f5t0 (2013-02-12)	2013-02-12T02:57:51.490Z	5100	53	0	1,324,649	WIN
us10004bnm (2016-01-06)	2016-01-06T01:30:01.480Z	5100	53	0	643,006	WIN
us10006n8a (2016-09-09)	2016-09-09T00:30:01.440Z	5300	53	0	718,965	WIN
us2000aert (2017-09-03)	2017-09-03T03:30:01.760Z	6300	52	−1	3,494,402	WIN

Leave-one-out under the same frozen integers: 6/6 WIN.

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Adversary grades — collapse + near-site

3 / 3 correctly rejected (WIN on adversary surface)

Event	Class	travel_s	lag_s	snr_ppt	FIRE	Verdict
us2000aetk (2017-09-03 +8m30s)	cavity collapse	—	—	2,734	no	WIN
us2000ati7 (2017-09-23)	near-site ml 3.6	61	+8	5,887	no	WIN
us1000aqsx (2017-10-12)	near-site mb_lg 2.9	60	+7	8,571	no	WIN

Shape separation: explosions keep the 53±2 s appointment at SNR ≥ 20,000 ppt. Adversaries either have no onset under the sealed rule, or arrive +7…+8 s off the frozen ladder with SNR below the floor.

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What this proves for UUM-8D

Raw ground motion is an integer lattice appointment (catalog clock + station track + count energy). Continuous P/S spectral discriminants are not required to separate the announced class from its loudest near-site look-alikes on this stratum.

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Status: LAW FROZEN — historical IC.MDJ seal complete. Prospective ComCat explosion-type events OPEN on the Registry. IU.INCN and 2010-05-12 holdout remain VOID / unscored until pulled.