Eclipse 2026 Operations Runbook

Operations runbook — August 12, 2026

The day, in UT

UT	Event
15:34:11	First partial contact anywhere (global P1)
16:43:40	C1 Látrabjarg — the partial phase opens over Iceland
16:58:05	Totality begins on the path (global)
~17:06	The umbra crosses near the North Pole (east→west leg)
17:45:34	Maximum, Látrabjarg (totality)
17:45:54	Greatest eclipse — 65°13.5′N 25°13.7′W, 2m18.2s, Sun +25.8°
17:48:46	Maximum, Reykjavik (totality)
17:53:59 / 17:55:20	Maximum at Millstone (15.9%) / Norwich CT (13.2%) — the control channel
18:28:18 / 18:29:11 / 18:29:43	Maximum, A Coruña / León / Zaragoza (totality, Sun low)
18:34:05	Totality ends on the path (global)
19:02:30	C4 Zaragoza — near local sunset
19:57:56	Last partial contact anywhere (global P4)

(Station rows are the substrate's own sealed geometry — see the prediction registry.)

The live loop — eclipse-watch

Every pass (default 60 s): (1) re-prove the sealed eclipse Form from disk and refuse the pass on drift (LAW 3 live-path governance); (2) capture NOAA SWPC 1-minute estimated Kp into the ledger and evaluate the storm gate (est Kp ≥ 5 → loud pivot flag; capture continues); (3) capture the USGS observatory H series for the current UT day; (4) inside 15:34–19:58 UT on the day, log the eclipse-window capture state; otherwise print the countdown.

gaiaftcl eclipse-watch --once            # single governed pass (smoke test)
gaiaftcl eclipse-watch --poll-seconds 60 # the 24×7 loop

Current ledger-borne state:

• Latest SWPC estimated Kp in ledger: 1.33 at 2026-08-18 11:36:00 UT
• Latest GFZ definitive/nowcast Kp day in ledger: 2026-08-12
• Latest magnetometer capture: BOU H at 2026-08-18 11:36:00 UT

Ledger-borne (renders identically until the next ingest).

What the live loop is and is not: it is the eclipse-day capture and the storm gate. It is not the verdict — Madrigal's definitive gridded TEC posts on a measured two-to-three-week lag (resolution status below), and the resolution crucible is the judgment. Real-time TEC (NTRIP/GNSS streams) is Stage-4 territory with its own registrations.

The resolution — runs the day the archive posts (~2026-08-30)

The exact command chain lives in the prediction registry. Sequence: ingest eclipse day + the three pre-registered control days (2026-08-05, 2026-08-19, 2026-07-16 — each must pass Kp ≤ 4 live or is excluded and reported) → build the 2026 fossils → eclipse-invariant --historical --seal --save → eclipse-wiki-render. The wiki's crucible tables become the public readout of whether the sealed claim held.

Standing maintenance (now → the grading window)

• eclipse-wiki-render --check after any ingest: exit 1 = the wiki drifted from the ledger → run the renderer.
• invariant-verify --game eclipse and --path …/eclipse-prediction-2026-08-12.invariant.json at will — both must exit 0; any drift is a stop-everything signal.
• Optional context captures any day: helio-ingest kp --day <D>, helio-ingest usgs-geomag --day <D>.

Handoffs (outside the eclipse lane — stated, not performed)

1. Daemonizing the live loop: the plist is staged at cells/launchd/com.gaiaftcl.franklin.eclipse-watch.plist; bootstrapping it requires deploying the shared CLI binary to the fleet path — a separate deployment stream. Until then the loop runs manually from the repo build binary.
2. Publishing this wiki: scripts/publish_wiki.sh pushes to the public GitHub wiki remote — founder's action.
3. Stage-4 registrations (Earthdata/CDDIS 1 Hz RINEX, ESA EO/Swarm, SuperMAG, GAGE NTRIP) — founder account signups; none block current operations.

Resolution status — measured T+1 (2026-08-13)

The sky kept the appointment; the archive has not yet: eclipse day measured quiet (max Kp 2.667, storm flag never raised), Madrigal posts on a measured two-to-three-week lag, and the grading window opens around 2026-08-30. The full dated status lives on the prediction registry; the operational account is in the first 27 days review.