Shear Studies Index

Shear Studies — Program Index

The sky writes geometry, and geometry cannot lie. Every study on this wiki begins with a forcing that carries its own clock and its own track — a shadow cone sweeping a ground path, a rocket burn stamped to the manifest second, a flare peak on an X-ray clock, an earthquake origin time, a shock front crossing L1 — and asks whether a public raw archive answers at the place the track names and at the lag the travel time demands. The shear is the sealed, exact-integer test that the true forcing passes and its loudest look-alike fails: an adversary can mimic the magnitude of a response, but it cannot fake its shape.

Note

One method, many skies. Study 1 (the 2026 total eclipse) is the reference implementation and is locked; the five charters below run the same recipe against different skies, seas, and ground.

Program status

#	Study	Status	The forcing and the shear
1	Eclipse 2026 — Overview	RESOLVING 2026-08-13	The Moon's umbral cone crosses Iberia on 2026-08-12; the total-electron-content bite must ride the shadow's ground track on the ephemeris clock, with geomagnetic storms as the sealed adversary.
2	Study 02 — Launch ionospheric holes	OPEN — charter sealed	Rocket second-stage burns punch ~900 km holes in the ionospheric F-region on a manifest-published clock; the hole must confine to the ascent corridor and lag the burn second — a shape that storms, Tonga-class traveling disturbances, and deorbit burns cannot fake.
3	Study 03 — Solar-flare SIDs	OPEN — charter sealed	A solar flare steps the entire sunlit hemisphere up in lockstep with the GOES X-ray clock — the eclipse geometry run in reverse — with geomagnetic storms and solar radio bursts as the sealed adversaries.
4	Study 04 — Tsunami vs storm surge	OPEN — charter sealed	A subsea earthquake's USGS origin second plus a Huygens travel-time chart over public tide-gauge archives separates seismic tsunamis from storm surge, meteotsunami, and Lamb-wave adversaries; resolves as a standing law on the next M ≥ 7.5 subsea event.
5	Study 05 — Forbush decreases	OPEN — charter sealed	An L1 shock minute strobes the ~50-station neutron-monitor network; a rigidity-ordered, longitude-flat global step must part — at zero false positives on raw uncorrected counts — from the pressure lows and the traveling diurnal wave that mimic its size but not its shape.
6	Study 06 — Explosion vs earthquake	OPEN — charter sealed	A zero-free-parameter point track at Punggye-ri and a deterministic Pn/Pg/Sn/Lg arrival ladder under a catalog clock separate announced explosions from earthquakes in raw integer seismic counts, with near-site earthquakes and ripple-fired quarry blasts as adversaries and the contested 2010-05-12 micro-event pre-registered as a scored holdout.

The shear recipe

Every charter on this wiki must instantiate all four pieces before its status line may advance. A study missing any one of them is not a shear study; it is a correlation hunt.

1. A forcing with a computable clock and track. The cause must announce itself in public numbers before the response is examined: an ephemeris, a launch manifest, an X-ray flux time series, a seismic catalog origin, an L1 plasma record. The clock gives the second (or minute) the response must lag from; the track gives the cone, corridor, hemisphere, chart, or point the response must confine to.
2. A public raw response archive. Exact URLs, file formats, cadence, and any authentication named in the charter. Raw means raw: uncorrected counts, unfiltered gauge levels, gridded values as served. Anyone with the charter and a terminal can pull the same bytes.
3. A sealed adversary. A named confounder that reaches the same magnitude as the true response but wears a different shape — a storm instead of a shadow, a surge instead of a wavefront, a pressure low instead of a shock. The shear must separate forcing from adversary on shape alone; separating on size is forbidden.
4. Standing future events for pre-registration. The forcing must recur on a schedule or a statistical drumbeat (launch manifests, flare watches, subsea seismicity, L1 monitors) so the frozen law can be tested on events that had not happened when the thresholds were sealed.

Verdict rules, common to all studies: verdicts are exact integers — no floating point crosses a seal. Every shear has a confinement analog (the response lives inside the track) and a traveling-lag analog (the response arrives on the clock, offset by a physical travel time). Thresholds are derived from a historical corpus, then frozen and sealed before any future event is scored. Falsifiers are recorded raw: a recorded failure is a finding, never renamed, never smoothed, never retro-fitted.

How a result gets sealed

Every study walks the same five-stage road, in order, with no stage revisited.

1. Charter. The forcing, track, clock, archives, adversaries, and success criteria are written down and sealed. Status: OPEN — charter sealed, corpus not yet ingested.
2. Corpus. Historical events are pulled raw from the named archives — every event the archives hold, not a curated subset. The corpus page records exact pulls, byte counts, and gaps.
3. Frozen law. Thresholds and the shear discriminant are derived from the corpus, stated as exact integers, and sealed. From this moment the law does not move; only events move through it.
4. Pre-registration. Each qualifying future event is registered before it happens (or before its response data is examined), with the predicted confinement and lag written into the registry page in advance.
5. Public resolution. The event occurs, the archives fill, the frozen law scores the raw data, and the verdict — pass or fail, integer by integer — is published as-is. A failed shear stays on the page with its numbers intact.

Why shape and not size

Size is cheap in geophysics: storms, surges, pressure systems, and radio bursts routinely match or exceed the amplitude of the signals studied here. What none of them can do is keep an appointment — arrive inside a moving cone, lag a published second by a fixed travel time, step fifty stations in the same minute, or climb a deterministic arrival ladder. The appointment is geometry, and geometry cannot lie.