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Amber Forecast Confidence
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Amber Forecast Confidence is an optional Smart Optimization setting that reduces reliance on high future export forecasts. It can favour an export opportunity available now when a larger later spike is uncertain. It is off by default.
It is a scheduling heuristic, not a measured probability or a guarantee of better returns. Exporting earlier can miss a higher price later. It does not guarantee a partial export now or reserve a fixed percentage for each outcome.
- In Home Assistant, open PowerSync's Smart Optimization Battery & Forecast Inputs settings, or use the Amber Forecast Confidence configuration switch on the Smart Optimization device.
- In PowerSync Mobile, open Smart Optimization → Settings → Battery & Forecast Inputs and enable Amber Forecast Confidence. The control appears only for Amber and an integration version that advertises support. Older integrations and other providers hide it.
Changing the switch saves the preference and requests a new plan when Smart Optimization is enabled. It does not turn on Smart Optimization or override Monitoring Mode, manual controls, reserves, Charge By Time or site limits. The saved setting survives reloads.
This setting is separate from the Amber provider's forecast confidence alert, which reports disagreement between import-price estimates.
The active interval, actual intervals, non-positive export prices and prices within the ordinary-price band retain their valuation. Future export prices above the ordinary band have only their excess premium reduced:
decision value = ordinary band + (forecast price − ordinary band) × 2^(−hours ahead / 1.5)
Each original Amber interval receives one weight. Its five-minute optimizer slices retain the same value; its timestamp determines how far ahead it is. Filled gaps carry adjusted values without moving the provider's interval boundaries.
The ordinary band uses a duration-weighted median plus the larger of 10 c/kWh or three median absolute deviations, capped at $1/kWh. Samples come from covered original source intervals in the available next 24 hours, excluding padding, duplicate coverage, flagged spikes and prices above $1/kWh. At least two ordinary source intervals are required. The 90-minute premium half-life and ordinary-band rules are provisional risk settings, not empirically calibrated probabilities.
For example, with ordinary prices of 5 c/kWh, the band is 15 c/kWh. A $24/kWh forecast two hours away is valued at about $9.62/kWh for planning. A current $10/kWh opportunity retains its valuation. A sufficiently larger later forecast can still be worth waiting for. Solar replenishment, home demand, battery efficiency and constraints also affect the chosen schedule.
Displayed tariff prices, settlement rates, daily costs and actual export earnings retain their original values. This setting changes optimizer valuation only.
- Profit Max: the same confidence weighting applies. Profit Max does not extend this feature's half-life to twelve hours.
- Cost Neutral: budget accounting and export eligibility continue using the original tariff rates. Future budget coverage remains a forecast, not realised credit.
- Spread Export: slices within one source interval keep equal decision values. Different source intervals can receive different weights and remain separate export windows.
- Export Boost and saving-session overlays: these intentional adjustments apply after confidence weighting. Chip-mode thresholds retain their original price reference.
- Import prices and Spike Protection: retain their existing behaviour. This feature does not permit charging during a protected spike.
When this feature can apply, it replaces the existing Amber export confidence decay; it is not applied twice. Turning it off restores the existing export-decay behaviour, including the six-hour or Profit Max twelve-hour horizon. It does not disable all existing confidence decay.
Missing source timestamps/types, custom export-price overrides, or insufficient ordinary-price samples cause an explicit fallback to the existing export-decay policy. The switch can be enabled while the accepted plan reports used: false and a reason.
The Optimizer Current Action sensor (sensor.power_sync_optimization_status) exposes amber_forecast_confidence_enabled for the saved preference and amber_forecast_confidence for the accepted plan's diagnostics. Diagnostics include enabled, used, reason, the ordinary band when available, half-life, policy version and adjusted interval count. A settings change can precede completion of the next plan; accepted-plan diagnostics continue to describe the last accepted solve.
These attributes prove the planning policy, not a hardware command, acknowledgement or physical export. Synthetic regression checks establish the policy and solver tradeoff; they do not establish historical revenue improvement.